The central government has scheduled an all‑party meet on July 19 and an NDA parliamentary party meeting on July 21 to secure the two‑thirds majority required for the women's reservation amendment. The support of regional parties like SP, DMK and TMC could be decisive.

Key Takeaways

  • The Constitution (131st Amendment) bill requires a two‑thirds majority.
  • Support from regional players such as SP, DMK and TMC is pivotal.
  • Strategic all‑party and NDA meetings are slated for July 19 and 21.

As the Monsoon Session of Parliament kicks off on July 20, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is intensifying its push to pass the Constitution (131st Amendment) Bill, which seeks to reserve seats for women in the Lok Sabha linked to the forthcoming delimitation exercise. After failing to secure the requisite two‑thirds majority in the April special session, the administration is now courting a broader coalition of smaller parties to bridge the gap.

Numbers at a Glance

The Lok Sabha’s effective strength stands at 540 members, meaning at least 360 MPs must vote in favour of any constitutional amendment. The NDA’s current count hovers around 299 MPs, inclusive of recent defections from the Shiv Sena‑UBT faction. The government’s outreach list includes:

  • NCPI – 20 MPs
  • DMK – 22 MPs
  • YSRCP – 4 MPs
  • Independents – 1 MP

If every listed ally aligns, the tally could rise to roughly 346 MPs. Adding the eight members of Sharad Pawar’s NCP would push the count to 354, while Shiv Sena‑UBT’s three MPs have hinted at “issue‑based support.” A segment of Trinamool Congress (TMC) MPs is also being courted to close the final shortfall.

Stance of Key Parties

Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Akhilesh Yadav has signalled willingness to back the amendment, provided certain conditions are met. Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) historically opposes delimitation, yet its 22 MPs remain a crucial bargaining chip. Shiv Sena‑UBT has indicated conditional support, which could add three more votes.

Government’s Strategic Moves

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to address the NDA parliamentary party on July 21, reinforcing the need for unity across the alliance. The all‑party meeting on July 19, attended by Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP President Nitin Nabin, and General Secretary (Organisation) B.L. Santhosh, served as a platform to fine‑tune negotiations and understand the demands of potential partners.

Implications and Outlook

Securing a two‑thirds majority would allow the women’s reservation amendment to clear the Lok Sabha swiftly, setting the stage for a fresh delimitation that could reshape electoral politics. Conversely, a failure to rally sufficient support could expose cracks in the NDA’s legislative agenda and weaken its negotiating hand in upcoming state elections.