The recent selloff in SpaceX shares has sent ripples through Wall Street, serving as an ominous sign for Elon Musk's aerospace and satellite giant. On Wednesday, July 15, 2026, the stock dipped to $132.15 before closing slightly higher at $135.27. This movement is particularly concerning as it marks a descent below the company's blockbuster IPO price of $135 per share.

The 'Lockup' Threat

The primary catalyst for the anticipated volatility is the upcoming expiration of lockup restrictions. During an IPO, insiders, employees, and early investors are prohibited from selling their shares for a set period to prevent market flooding. However, as these restrictions lift in early August, a massive volume of shares—estimated to be worth roughly $123 billion—could become available for trading. This sudden increase in supply often leads to downward pressure on stock prices.

Valuation vs. Performance

Despite the 33% decline from its post-IPO peak, SpaceX remains a titan of industry with a market capitalization of roughly $1.8 trillion. However, its valuation metrics remain aggressive. The stock currently trades at 49 times its expected revenue, a significantly higher premium compared to Musk’s other major venture, Tesla, which recently traded at a 15x multiple. This high premium is driven by the massive growth potential of Starlink and the company's dominance in government launch contracts.

Expert Outlook and Historical Context

Market analysts are divided. While the majority of analysts (27 out of 32) maintain a 'Buy' rating, the looming supply shock has prompted some to adopt a cautious stance. Historical data suggests that companies whose shares fall below their IPO price within the first two months often underperform compared to those that maintain their momentum. All eyes are now on SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report, expected in August, which will provide critical insight into the company's ability to manage its $5 billion annual net loss while scaling its global operations.